ANALYSIS: Why Red Bull chose Liam Lawson instead of Yuki Tsunoda as Sergio Perez's replacement

Liam Lawson will become the latest Red Bull junior to get a shot at the big time and partner four-time world champion Max Verstappen at the energy drinks firm’s works outfit. Why did he get the nod over RB team mate Yuki Tsunoda? F1 Correspondent Lawrence Barretto explains…

As the pressure piled up on Sergio Perez’s shoulders approaching the summer break, it was Daniel Ricciardo’s name that was most heavily linked to being his replacement when Red Bull eventually wielded the axe.

Sources say Red Bull were looking to put the Australian in the car when the season resumed – only to change their mind and keep faith in Perez – whom they had given a new contract earlier in the year.

Ricciardo’s star then quickly faded and it was Lawson – Ricciardo’s permanent replacement from the United States Grand Prix onwards – who became the frontrunner rather than his team mate Tsunoda.

This was despite Tsunoda enjoying his most impressive season to date, albeit in his fourth campaign with Red Bull’s sister team RB.

ABU DHABI, UNITED ARAB EMIRATES - DECEMBER 08: Liam Lawson of New Zealand and Visa Cash App RB — Lawson has been selected as Max Verstappen's team mate at Red Bull in 2025

The Japanese racer had outperformed team mate Nyck de Vries last year, done the same with Ricciardo and when Lawson stepped in for the final six races of this year, Tsunoda came out on top then, too, beating him 6-0 in qualifying and scoring eight points to Lawson’s four.

Tsunoda is also understood to have done a very impressive job in the end-of-season one-day test in Abu Dhabi, where he drove a Red Bull in a performance setting for the first time in his career.

That was a test that been pushed for by Tsunoda’s backers Honda – who are parting ways with Red Bull at the end of next year to become Aston Martin’s works partner.

The Japanese company’s senior management are believed to have also made a case to Red Bull for promoting their junior alongside Verstappen in 2025 if Perez moved on, even if they knew they don’t get a say on drivers.

But by the time of the test, the decision had already been made.

ABU DHABI, UNITED ARAB EMIRATES - DECEMBER 10: Yuki Tsunoda of Japan and Oracle Red Bull Racing — Tsunoda took part in the end-of-season test in Abu Dhabi for Red Bull – but a decision had already been made

Despite Tsunoda having made steps in terms of his performance curve, both in qualifying and the race, as well as proving he can deliver good feedback and get his fiery radio chatter under control – it wasn’t enough.

Red Bull believe Lawson has a potentially higher ceiling than Tsunoda from what they’ve seen of him in two super-sub stints. Red Bull boss Christian Horner admitted to ESPN that it was “very, very tight” in choosing between the two of them but Lawson edged it.

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Stepping in mid-season is never easy and Lawson has done it not once but twice – and faired well on both occasions, even if he was outperformed across the board by Tsunoda in terms of stats in his second stint.

Red Bull love his mental strength and his feistiness in the heat of battle. Lawson was very bullish when going wheel-to-wheel in 2024 – including at least twice with Perez the driver he is replacing.

That mental toughness will serve him well going up against the best driver in this generation in the shape of Verstappen. Lawson’s immense confidence and belief in his ability will help, too. But there is no doubt, he faces a mammoth task.

For now, though, Lawson has the seat he has long craved and believed he was ready for. Deliver as he and Red Bull think he can and he could build a formidable partnership with Verstappen.

Struggle, though, and Tsunoda may well get the chance he believes he deserves. That’s why it’s important Tsunoda takes this defeat on the chin and focuses on levelling up again next year. Do that and he can be in the mix at Red Bull as well as being attractive to other teams.

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The Japanese driver has been linked with Haas and Sauber in the past – while a move to Aston in the future remains a possibility given Honda (who intend to keep supporting their junior Tsunoda for the foreseeable) will be partnering the team from 2026.

This latest driver market swing means there’s just one seat left on the 2025 grid – and that’s at RB alongside Tsunoda.

F2 runner up and Red Bull junior Isack Hadjar is the frontrunner to get the nod, but as of now, a deal hasn’t been agreed.