Can F1 betting markets predict which teams could win a Grand Prix in 2026

The betting market around which team will win at least one race this season is hard to tackle, as you can't really argue with it.

The so-called 'big four' teams of Mercedes, Ferrari, Red Bull and current champions McLaren are all priced at extremely short odds, while the rest of the field are available at bigger prices to find their way to the top of the podium.

As we all know, nothing in F1 is ever certain, especially in a season with more unknowns than most following the introduction of multiple regulation changes for 2026.

We've looked at the betting markets to see what prices bookmakers are offering for each team to pick up at least one Grand Prix win this season.

What we can learn from previous seasons

During the 2025 season, three teams found themselves winning a Grand Prix as McLaren stormed to the Constructors' title with almost double the points of Mercedes in second place.

Between Lando Norris and Oscar Piastri, the McLaren pair took the chequrered flag first on 14 occasions, while Red Bull's Max Verstappen picked up eight race wins and George Russell won two for Mercedes.

In 2024, four teams won at least four faces each as Ferrari were also in the mix. In the era of Red Bull dominance before that, it was only Ferrari who stopped them securing a clean sweep when Carlos Sainz won the 2023 Singapore Grand Prix.

Perhaps the last big surprise was Alpine's win at the 2021 Hungarian Grand Prix, and while some think it may take similar weather conditions for an underdog to triumph, the new rules mean we just know yet.

The top four teams of Mercedes, Ferrari, McLaren and Red Bull are all priced at 1/20 (1.05, -2000) and shorter to record a win in 2026.

Alpine, Aston Martin and Haas could be ones to watch

Alpine are one of the candidates to be the leading midfield team this season after making the switch to Mercedes power for 2026, with prices at around 5/1 (6.0, +500) to win any of the 24 races.

Aston Martin are currently the shortest price of any team outside the top four to win a race at just 9/4 (3.25, +225), while the best early option for race wins could be Haas.

The key to that backing is that the American team is Ferrari powered, and if the Italian power unit proves to be the most suited to the new regulations, they could be fighting at the front.

Oliver Bearman and Esteban Ocon both put in some decent times in pre-season testing and the Frenchman has the experience – taking that Hungarian victory for Alpine in 2021.

With odds of around 7/1 (8.0, +700), it's far from impossible to see a scenario in which either Haas driver could secure their first win.

Audi ready to make their mark

Audi made a respectable start in their first F1 pre-season with a solid performance in testing, and the German outfit are candidates to put on a show in 2026.

During their final season under the Kick Sauber banner, the team celebrated a fantastic podium when Nico Hulkenberg finished third in the 2025 British Grand Prix at Silverstone. With the experienced German teaming up with talented Brazilian Gabriel Bortoleto once again, they have two drivers capable of taking advantage if situations fall their way.

Audi are 10/1 (11.0, +1000) for a race win in 2025, and while they remain underdogs it's certainly possible.

Prices are correct at the time of publication but can fluctuate. Please note that the information provided in this article is for entertainment purposes only and F1 does not guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information provided. Any action you take based on the information in this article is strictly at your own risk, and F1 will not be liable for any losses and damages in connection with the use of this article. F1 does not encourage gambling and remind you to please gamble responsibly.