Kimi Antonelli’s rapid betting market shift after wins in China and Japan

Kimi Antonelli’s inexperience was reflected in his odds when bookmakers made him fifth favourite to win the 2026 F1 Drivers’ Championship over the summer, but after just three races, he tops the standings.

After finishing second behind Mercedes team mate George Russell in the season opener in Australia, the Italian teenager was shortened to 6/1 (7.00, +600) to win the title in only his second season at this level.

Just days later, Antonelli won his first ever Grand Prix in China, becoming the second teenager in F1 history to win a race.

His success in Shanghai saw odds reduced further to 9/2 (5.50, +450), before a second successive win in Japan cut his price to just 11/10 (2.10, +110) to win the Drivers’ title.

The same occurred with Antonelli's race odds having been 8/1 (9.00, +800) to win in Australia, 6/1 (7.00, +600) shot in Shanghai and just 11/5 (3.20, +220) before the cars hit the track in Japan.

With three races completed, Antonelli has completely turned the markets around and is now being quoted at the same odds as Russell, with no better than 6/4 (2.50, +150) available for another victory in Miami when racing resumes in May.

Accomplished Antonelli is winning admirers

Antonelli showed flashes of his tremendous potential during his rookie year, notably taking pole for the Sprint in Miami and claiming podium finishes in Canada, Singapore and Las Vegas.

However, he has made a significant leap forward in 2026 to become the youngest F1 driver to lead the Drivers’ Championship standings.

There have still been understandable signs of inexperience, such as his crash during final practice for the Australian Grand Prix, but apart from that, he has barely put a wheel wrong when the action begins on a Sunday – finishing second, first and first.

Achieving back-to-back victories just two weeks apart suggest that increased expectations are yet to affect his performance and he now looks like a realistic World Championship contender.

Junior experience can help Antonelli

While Antonelli will be racing at some of the biggest tracks this season for only the second time in his career, there are other venues where he may feel more comfortable due to racing there during his junior days.

He won at Yas Marina, Spa, Monza and Zandvoort in Formula 4, while he was successful at Silverstone and Hungary in Formula 2.

His track preferences so far in his F1 career cannot be properly judged yet as last season’s Mercedes was a temperamental car that loved cool conditions and street racing, which was demonstrated when he earned his first podium finishes in Montreal and Las Vegas.

The Italian should also be relishing a return to Brazil as he had a fantastic weekend in Sao Paulo last season, finishing second in Sprint Qualifying, the Sprint, Grand Prix Qualifying and the Grand Prix itself.

With an even stronger car this season, betting fans will be wanting to make sure he's on their shortlists when the teams return to South America in November.

Prices are correct at the time of publication but can fluctuate. Please note that the information provided in this article is for entertainment purposes only and F1 does not guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information provided. Any action you take based on the information in this article is strictly at your own risk, and F1 will not be liable for any losses and damages in connection with the use of this article. F1 does not encourage gambling and remind you to please gamble responsibly.