POINTS PERMUTATIONS: When is the earliest Antonelli could win the World Championship?

Kimi Antonelli has remained at the top of the drivers’ standings since Round 3 of the campaign in Japan – and his hold on the P1 slot was strengthened following his podium finish last time out at the Singapore Grand Prix.

The Italian is now 102 points clear of closest challenger George Russell following the 17th event of the season, while third-placed Lewis Hamilton is now 111 points adrift.

Antonelli has previously insisted that thinking about the title is “exactly what I don’t want to do”, but our data team have done the maths to figure out how soon the Mercedes driver could potentially win a maiden World Championship…

How many points are still up for grabs?

Six rounds remain in the 2026 season, with the next being the United States Grand Prix.

This means that the maximum points score still available is 150, which would be achieved by a driver winning every remaining Grand Prix.

Which drivers are still in contention for the title?

Mathematically, five drivers besides Antonelli are still in contention for the championship – that being Russell, Hamilton, Max Verstappen, Charles Leclerc and Lando Norris.

However, the realistic likelihood of those at the lower end of the order taking the title is slim, with their chance of winning based on the possibility of Antonelli failing to score any more points and no other driver exceeding the Italian’s current total of 340 points.

In this scenario, Russell, Hamilton and Verstappen would have to wait until Qatar to take the crown, while Leclerc and Norris could only win it in Abu Dhabi.

When is the earliest that Antonelli could claim the World Championship?

That would be at the next round in the United States. For this to happen, Antonelli would need to win while Russell would have to finish ninth or lower. Hamilton would also have to cross the line in fifth place or lower, and Verstappen could finish in any position.

In other words, Antonelli needs to score 23 more points than Russell, 14 more than Hamilton and six more than Verstappen to seal his maiden World Championship in Austin.