POINTS PERMUTATIONS: When is the earliest Antonelli could win the World Championship?

Kimi Antonelli has remained at the top of the drivers’ standings since Round 3 of the campaign in Japan – and his hold on the P1 slot was strengthened following his P2 finish and George Russell's retirement last time out at the Bahrain Grand Prix in Malaysia.

The Italian is now 84 points clear of closest challenger Russell following the 16th event of the season, while third-placed Lewis Hamilton is now 106 points adrift.

Antonelli has insisted that thinking about the title is “exactly what I don’t want to do”, but our data team have done the maths to figure out how soon the Mercedes driver could potentially win a maiden World Championship…

How many points are still up for grabs?

Seven rounds remain in the 2026 season, with one of these – Singapore – being a Sprint weekend.

This means that the maximum points score still available is 183, which would be achieved by a driver winning every Grand Prix as well as the Sprint.

Which drivers are still in contention for the title?

Mathematically, five drivers besides Antonelli are still in contention for the championship – that being Russell, Hamilton, Lando Norris, Charles Leclerc, and Max Verstappen.

However, the realistic likelihood of those at the lower end of the order taking the title is slim, with their chance of winning based on the possibility of Antonelli failing to score any more points and no other driver exceeding the Italian’s current total of 320 points.

In this scenario, all of Antonelli's challengers would have to wait until Qatar to take the crown.

When is the earliest that Antonelli could claim the World Championship?

That would be Round 18 in the United States. For this to happen, Antonelli would need to outscore Russell by 16 points or more in Singapore – this could be achieved in a number of ways, such as winning the Sprint and Grand Prix while his team mate fails to score in the former but finishes P3 on race day.

However it might happen, building a lead of 100 points or more over Russell would be enough for Antonelli to secure the title at the following round in Austin – but only if he were to triumph in the Grand Prix, with Russell leaving the Circuit of The Americas with zero points.

If that doesn’t happen, what other scenarios would see Antonelli become World Champion?

Well, our data team calculated what would happen if Antonelli and Russell both continued to end each round in their median finish positions from the season so far. Antonelli’s average result in 2026 is currently P1, while Russell’s stands at 3.5.

Based on this prediction, the earliest that Antonelli could win the World Championship would be Round 19 in Mexico, where he would build an advantage that Russell could not mathematically close before the end of the campaign.