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The 2016 title permutations for Sunday in Abu Dhabi

27 Nov 2016

For the second time in three years, Mercedes' Nico Rosberg and Lewis Hamilton head into the Abu Dhabi season finale locked in a tense fight for the world championship crown. Unlike 2014, it is Rosberg who is the clear favourite given his 12-point lead - but there are still several ways Hamilton could come from behind to snatch the crown from his team mate...

As the graphic indicates, Rosberg is very much in control of his own fate - the first time the German has ever been in that position. A 12-point cushion over Hamilton heading into the weekend gives him a clear advantage, and means the Briton has but a slim hope of denying his team mate a first championship triumph.

Rosberg will win the 2016 crown if...

  • He finishes on the podium in Abu Dhabi (regardless of where Hamilton finishes)
  • He finishes sixth or higher, and Hamilton doesn't win
  • He finishes eighth or higher, and Hamilton is no higher than third
  • Hamilton finishes fourth or lower (regardless of where Rosberg finishes)

Hamilton, therefore, must finish within the top four to stand any chance of snatching the championship - but even then he needs a helping hand from Rosberg. Fundamentally, the Briton's hopes can be summarised as:

Hamilton will win the 2016 crown if...

  • He triumphs, and Rosberg is fourth or lower
  • He finishes second, and Rosberg finishes outside the top six
  • He finishes third, and Rosberg finishes outside the top eight

In terms of their records in Abu Dhabi, Hamilton's pole on Saturday marked the first time since they became team mates in 2013 that he has got the better of Rosberg in qualifying at Yas Marina - while the only time he has finished ahead here on a Sunday was in 2014, when Rosberg was famously hit with technical issues...

WATCH: Who has the title-winning mentality: Rosberg or Hamilton?