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BETTING GUIDE: Who do the odds favour as F1 heads to Imola?

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Lando Norris upset the apple cart in Miami, claiming not just his debut win but also a famous one as he finally stopped the juggernaut that was Max Verstappen and Red Bull. With an upgraded McLaren, Norris looked seriously quick – but will that be the case in Imola, a completely different style of circuit? Let’s see what the odds have to say.

188BET’s odds are presented in decimal form: for every $1 wagered you would win the figure represented by the odds; so, if Verstappen is favourite at 1.50, you would win $1.50 for every dollar bet.

The odds for the win

Verstappen is still the favourite going into the seventh race weekend of the season, the Dutchman often bouncing back strongly following a rare defeat. He did so after Singapore last year, winning the last seven races of the season. He also won in Japan and China following defeat in Australia this year – so can he respond to Miami in the same fashion?

READ MORE: ‘I want to do it with McLaren’ – F1’s newest winner Lando Norris on loyalty to his team, and taking the fight to Verstappen

Norris has jumped up the odds to be second favourite, with the McLaren upgrade package very much doing the business in the sunshine state. Oscar Piastri will have the full upgrades on his car this weekend too, so it will be interesting to see if the Australian can get on the pace of his team mate.

Max Verstappen 1.18
Lando Norris 9.00
Charles Leclerc, Sergio Perez 15.0
Carlos Sainz 34.0
Oscar Piastri 41.0
George Russell, Lewis Hamilton 67.0
Fernando Alonso 126
Lance Stroll 251
Alex Albon, Daniel Ricciardo, Esteban Ocon, Kevin Magnussen, Logan Sargeant, Nico Hulkenberg, Pierre Gasly, Valtteri Bottas, Yuki Tsunoda, Zhou Guanyu 601

Lando Norris, McLaren F1 Team, 1st position, and Zak Brown, CEO, McLaren Racing, celebrate in Parc

Can Norris back up his victory in Miami with another top drawer performance in Imola?

The odds for who will be fastest in qualifying

Verstappen has been in scintillating form over one lap as well this season, with six pole positions scored for the six Grands Prix so far. He also bagged pole for the Sprint in Miami, the only blot on his copybook the Sprint in China, where Norris grabbed pole.

Charles Leclerc comes into the reckoning over one lap according to the odds, the Ferrari man very much coming back into form of late after a slightly shaky start to the season. He was overshadowed by Carlos Sainz early on but seems to have gotten to grips with this year’s Ferrari much more over the last couple of rounds, and can never be discounted over one lap.

Max Verstappen 1.45
Charles Leclerc 6.00
Lando Norris 7.00
Carlos Sainz 11.0
Sergio Perez 19.0
Oscar Piastri 26.0
Fernando Alonso 67.0
George Russell, Lewis Hamilton 81.0
Lance Stroll 101
Daniel Ricciardo, Yuki Tsunoda 251
Nico Hulkenberg 301
Alex Albon, Esteban Ocon, Kevin Magnussen, Logan Sargeant, Pierre Gasly, Valtteri Bottas, Zhou Guanyu 601

READ MORE: Our writers celebrate their favourite and most memorable Ayrton Senna moments

The odds for a podium finish

The fight for the podium spots have been hotly contested all season long. Ferrari seemed to be the second quickest car, but now McLaren have closed the gap. Mercedes have been hit and miss so far, and Aston Martin have also looked quick on occasion.

MIAMI, FLORIDA - MAY 05: Max Verstappen of the Netherlands and Oracle Red Bull Racing on the grid

Verstappen has won in Imola twice - but can he do so against a resurgent McLaren?

Only five drivers have secured podiums so far this season – the Red Bull duo, the Ferrari drivers and Norris. Could Piastri, with those upgrades now bolted onto his car join the party? The Australian did very much in Miami in terms of pace, although luck wasn’t on his side there. He is 3/16 Italian too, so is trying to claim this as a home race…

Max Verstappen 1.10
Lando Norris 1.50
Charles Leclerc, Sergio Perez 1.80
Carlos Sainz 3.40
Oscar Piastri 5.00
Fernando Alonso, George Russell, Lewis Hamilton 11.0
Lance Stroll 101
Daniel Ricciardo, Nico Hulkenberg, Yuki Tsunoda 151
Alex Albon, Esteban Ocon, Kevin Magnussen, Pierre Gasly 301
Logan Sargeant, Valtteri Bottas, Zhou Guanyu 501

READ MORE: What tyres will the teams and drivers have for the 2024 Emilia Romagna Grand Prix?

The odds for a top-six finish

Mercedes had a disappointing time of it in Miami, but they have some upgrades on their car here in Imola, which could jump them back up the order. They aren’t the only team bringing upgrades to Italy though, so the order could well shuffle around this weekend.

Of the midfield, Nico Hulkenberg and Yuki Tsunoda have been the star performers and the two most likely to break into the bigger points paying positions, but watch out for Daniel Ricciardo. He qualified and raced well in the Sprint in Miami, and while things didn’t go his way in the race, he seems very keen to prove a point with the pressure still mounting.

Max Verstappen 1.08
Lando Norris 1.10
Carlos Sainz, Charles Leclerc, Sergio Perez 1.15
Oscar Piastri 1.40
George Russell, Lewis Hamilton 1.90
Fernando Alonso 2.75
Lance Stroll 8.00
Yuki Tsunoda 15.0
Daniel Ricciardo, Nico Hulkenberg 21.0
Esteban Ocon, Pierre Gasly 26.0
Alex Albon, Kevin Magnussen 34.0
Valtteri Bottas 41.0
Zhou Guanyu 51.0
Logan Sargeant 101

MIAMI, FLORIDA - MAY 05: Lewis Hamilton of Great Britain driving the (44) Mercedes AMG Petronas F1

Mercedes have some upgrades for this weekend in Imola that they hope will jump them up the order

The odds for a points finish

Williams and Kick Sauber are the only two teams yet to score, so could their luck change around in Imola? The weather is set to be fair, although there is a slim chance of rain on Sunday for the Grand Prix. Alex Albon will want to impress, having just signed a contract extension at Williams, to prove to the world he’s made the right choice in staying at Grove for the foreseeable future.

Fernando Alonso scraped back into the points in Miami after a rare off-weekend for the Spaniard, so he’ll want to bounce back in style, with Ricciardo still searching for a first top-10 finish in a Grand Prix this season.

Max Verstappen 1.07
Carlos Sainz, Charles Leclerc, Lando Norris, Sergio Perez 1.10
Fernando Alonso, George Russell, Lewis Hamilton, Oscar Piastri 1.15
Lance Stroll 1.60
Yuki Tsunoda 2.35
Daniel Ricciardo 2.60
Esteban Ocon, Nico Hulkenberg 3.00
Pierre Gasly 3.25
Kevin Magnussen 4.00
Alex Albon 6.00
Valtteri Bottas 11.0
Zhou Guanyu 13.0
Logan Sargeant 17.0

READ MORE: Albon signs multi-year contract extension with Williams

The odds for fastest lap

So much depends on the state of the race when it comes to fastest lap, with fresh tyres coming into play. Will anyone come in for a late pit stop and swap to the soft tyres for a tilt at the bonus point? One point might not matter when it comes to the championship in Abu Dhabi, but it could have huge ramifications when it comes to the lower placings in the constructors’ – and so prize money allocations…

Max Verstappen 1.44
Charles Leclerc, Lando Norris, Sergio Perez 9.00
Carlos Sainz 15.0
Oscar Piastri 17.0
George Russell, Lewis Hamilton 26.0
Fernando Alonso 34.0
Alex Albon, Daniel Ricciardo, Esteban Ocon, Kevin Magnussen, Lance Stroll, Logan Sargeant, Nico Hulkenberg, Pierre Gasly, Valtteri Bottas, Yuki Tsunoda, Zhou Guanyu 251

MIAMI, FLORIDA - MAY 03: Alexander Albon of Thailand and Williams talks to the media in the Paddock

Albon has extended his contract at Williams, keeping him there for the foreseeable future

What are the odds for which team will take the most points?

No surprises to see Red Bull top, with Sergio Perez doing a very decent job this season of backing up his team mate. The Mexican has four podiums from six Grands Prix this year already, and seems to be full of confidence at the moment. Interestingly, McLaren have jumped Ferrari for second favourites though, with Piastri and Norris doing a very solid job together.

NEED TO KNOW: The most important facts, stats and trivia ahead of the Emilia Romagna Grand Prix

As for Mercedes, they are a distant fourth in the odds, with the team delivering a pretty meagre points haul from Miami with no points from the Sprint at all, and just a sixth and eighth place finish in the Grand Prix to show for their efforts.

Red Bull 1.16
McLaren 6.50
Ferrari 9.00
Mercedes 34.0
Aston Martin 81.0
Alpine, Haas, RB 151
Williams 201
Kick Sauber 251

The odds for a Safety Car appearing during the race

There have been plenty of appearances for the Safety Car so far this season, including in the last two races. But will the Safety Car play a part on Sunday? Imola is an old fashioned circuit in many ways, so should anyone tangle, there isn’t much in the way of run offs. But equally, if everyone decides to be sensible and mind their newly upgrades cars, perhaps there won’t be any call for Bernd Maylander to lead the pack around.

Yes 1.50
No 2.50

MIAMI, FLORIDA - MAY 05: Sergio Perez of Mexico and Oracle Red Bull Racing prepares to drive in the

Perez will be looking to climb back to the podium after a fourth place finish in Miami

The odds for a number of classified drivers

There haven’t been many DNFs this season, with Logan Sargeant the only driver not to see the chequered flag in Miami. But how many drivers will make it to the end of the race in Imola? Last time F1 raced here in 2022, 18 drivers made it to the flag – the two Spaniards, Alonso and Sainz the only ones who went for an early bath.

Over 17.5 1.50
Under 17.5 2.50
Over 18.5 2.50
Under 18.5 1.50

READ MORE: Our writers share their views on where they’d love to see Adrian Newey next after his Red Bull departure

The odds for a winning margin

The races have been getting closer all season, the biggest winning margin Verstappen’s in Bahrain. Last time out Norris crossed the line just under eight seconds ahead of the Dutchman, having pulled out that gap after a mid-race Safety Car. Could he have won by much more? That’s the question – but maybe we’ll get an idea this weekend.

Over 10 seconds 1.60
Between 5 and 10 seconds inclusive 3.00
Under 5 seconds 6.00

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