BETTING GUIDE: Who are the favourites as F1 heads to Japan for the fourth race of the season?


Carlos Sainz brought Max Verstappen’s winning streak to an end last time out in Australia, but Red Bull will be keen to bounce back as the F1 calendar moves on to Japan.

After one-two results for the world champions in Bahrain and Saudi Arabia, it was Ferrari who achieved this feat in Melbourne. But can they repeat their success at Suzuka? Let’s see what the odds tell us…

188BET’s odds are presented in decimal form: for every $1 wagered you would win the figure represented by the odds; so, if Verstappen is favourite at 1.50, you would win $1.50 for every dollar bet.

NEED TO KNOW: The most important facts, stats and trivia ahead of the 2024 Japanese Grand Prix

The odds for the win

Despite missing out on victory at Albert Park – an event in which he didn’t even get to see the chequered flag due to his early retirement with a brake issue – Verstappen remains the favourite to take victory at the Japanese Grand Prix.

MELBOURNE, AUSTRALIA - MARCH 24: Race winner Carlos Sainz of Spain and Ferrari celebrates on the

Sainz claimed victory in Australia – but will Verstappen return to the front in Japan?

It was at this circuit that the Dutchman resumed his winning form in 2023, having lost out to none other than Sainz at the weekend prior in Singapore.

  • Max Verstappen 1.20
  • Sergio Perez 13.0
  • Carlos Sainz, Charles Leclerc 15.0
  • Lando Norris 26.0
  • Oscar Piastri 34.0
  • George Russell, Lewis Hamilton 41.0
  • Fernando Alonso 67.0
  • Lance Stroll 101
  • Alex Albon, Daniel Ricciardo, Esteban Ocon, Kevin Magnussen, Logan Sargeant, Nico Hulkenberg, Pierre Gasly, Valtteri Bottas, Yuki Tsunoda, Zhou Guanyu 601

F1 QUIZ: 10 tricky questions on the Japanese Grand Prix ahead of this weekend's race

The odds for who will be fastest in qualifying

Verstappen has enjoyed a clean sweep of pole positions so far in 2024, so unsurprisingly the odds rate him as the most likely to secure P1 on the grid in Japan.

However, on each of these occasions he has been joined by a Ferrari on the front row. Sainz and Charles Leclerc are the next favourites for pole.

Behind them are Lando Norris and Sergio Perez, while Norris’ McLaren team mate Oscar Piastri has slightly more distant odds.

  • Max Verstappen 1.67
  • Carlos Sainz, Charles Leclerc 5.00
  • Lando Norris, Sergio Perez 15.0
  • Oscar Piastri 29.0
  • George Russell, Lewis Hamilton 41.0
  • Fernando Alonso 67.0
  • Alex Albon, Lance Stroll 301
  • Daniel Ricciardo, Esteban Ocon, Kevin Magnussen, Logan Sargeant, Nico Hulkenberg, Pierre Gasly, Valtteri Bottas, Yuki Tsunoda, Zhou Guanyu 601
MELBOURNE, AUSTRALIA - MARCH 23: Max Verstappen of the Netherlands driving the (1) Oracle Red Bull

Verstappen has taken pole position for every race so far in 2024

The odds for a podium finish

While neither driver stood on the podium last time out in Melbourne, Verstappen and Perez are tipped as favourites for claiming a top three finish this weekend.

Both Sainz and Leclerc remain close behind in the odds, while Norris is also up there. The Briton achieved McLaren’s first podium of the campaign in Australia.

READ MORE: What time is the Formula 1 2024 Japanese Grand Prix and how can I watch it?

Also in with a shot are Piastri and the Mercedes pair of George Russell and Lewis Hamilton, who will be hoping for a better weekend after recording a double DNF at Albert Park.

  • Max Verstappen 1.10
  • Sergio Perez 1.65
  • Carlos Sainz, Charles Leclerc 1.90
  • Lando Norris 3.25
  • Oscar Piastri 5.00
  • George Russell, Lewis Hamilton 8.00
  • Fernando Alonso 17.0
  • Lance Stroll 51.0
  • Alex Albon, Daniel Ricciardo, Esteban Ocon, Kevin Magnussen, Logan Sargeant, Nico Hulkenberg, Pierre Gasly, Valtteri Bottas, Yuki Tsunoda, Zhou Guanyu 101
MELBOURNE, AUSTRALIA - MARCH 24: Race winner Carlos Sainz of Spain and Ferrari, Second placed

Norris achieved McLaren's first podium of the season so far in Australia

The odds for a top-six finish

The margins are very fine amongst the leading pack here, with the Red Bull, Ferrari and Mercedes drivers all in the mix, along with those from McLaren and Aston Martin.

Lance Stroll is at the bottom of this pack, though – given the possibility of some showers in the forecast this weekend – the Canadian is known to perform well in wet weather.

  • Max Verstappen 1.10
  • Carlos Sainz, Charles Leclerc, Sergio Perez 1.20
  • Lando Norris 1.35
  • Oscar Piastri 1.40
  • George Russell, Lewis Hamilton 1.80
  • Fernando Alonso 3.30
  • Lance Stroll 6.00
  • Yuki Tsunoda 10.0
  • Daniel Ricciardo 12.0
  • Alex Albon, Nico Hulkenberg 13.0
  • Kevin Magnussen 17.0
  • Esteban Ocon 21.0
  • Pierre Gasly 26.0
  • Logan Sargeant 29.0
  • Valtteri Bottas, Zhou Guanyu 51.0

READ MORE: What is the weather forecast for the 2024 Japanese Grand Prix?

The odds for a points finish

While the leading five teams again remain the favourites, the absence of Verstappen and Mercedes from the top 10 in Australia allowed for some other names to put themselves in the points.

MELBOURNE, AUSTRALIA - MARCH 24: Yuki Tsunoda of Japan driving the (22) Visa Cash App RB VCARB 01

Can Tsunoda repeat his points finish from Australia in front of his home crowd at Suzuka?

Haas secured an impressive double points finish, while Yuki Tsunoda put RB in the mix by taking home six points in P7.

These drivers are all potentially in the scrap for points again this weekend, while the likes of Daniel Ricciardo and Alex Albon could also be in with a shot.

  • Max Verstappen 1.08
  • Carlos Sainz, Charles Leclerc, Lando Norris, Oscar Piastri, Sergio Perez 1.15
  • George Russell, Lewis Hamilton 1.20
  • Fernando Alonso 1.55
  • Lance Stroll 1.85
  • Yuki Tsunoda 2.10
  • Daniel Ricciardo 2.20
  • Alex Albon, Nico Hulkenberg 2.35
  • Kevin Magnussen 2.75
  • Esteban Ocon 3.75
  • Pierre Gasly 4.50
  • Logan Sargeant 9.00
  • Valtteri Bottas, Zhou Guanyu 11.0

READ MORE: Tsunoda 'making very big steps' as RB engineers left impressed by his progress in 2024

The odds for fastest lap

Leclerc has earned an extra point for setting the fastest lap of the race at the last two events, but with Ferrari expecting a slightly more challenging outing at Suzuka, could the Monegasque’s run come to an end this time?

  • Max Verstappen 1.55
  • Carlos Sainz, Charles Leclerc 9.00
  • Sergio Perez 11.0
  • Lando Norris 13.0
  • Oscar Piastri 17.0
  • George Russell, Lewis Hamilton 21.0
  • Fernando Alonso 34.0
  • Valtteri Bottas, Yuki Tsunoda 67.0
  • Lance Stroll 101
  • Alex Albon, Daniel Ricciardo 151
  • Kevin Magnussen, Nico Hulkenberg 201
  • Esteban Ocon, Logan Sargeant, Pierre Gasly, Zhou Guanyu 251
MELBOURNE, AUSTRALIA - MARCH 23: Charles Leclerc of Monaco and Ferrari prepares to drive in the

Leclerc set the fastest lap of the race in both Saudi Arabia and Australia

What are the odds for which team will take the most points?

It might have been a more difficult weekend for Red Bull in Melbourne, but the world champions are still the favourites with the bookmakers for securing the most points in Japan. However, with Ferrari being the squad to achieve this last time out, the Scuderia are still in the running to do this again.

With Mercedes’ nightmare race in Australia a marked contrast to McLaren’s double points finish, the latter are ahead of the former in the odds.

  • Red Bull 1.12
  • Ferrari 8.00
  • McLaren 13.0
  • Mercedes 21.00
  • Aston Martin 41.0
  • Alpine, Haas, RB, Sauber, Williams 151

READ MORE: What tyres will the teams and drivers have for the 2024 Japanese Grand Prix?

The odds for a Safety Car appearing during the race

While the Australian Grand Prix was only interrupted by a Virtual Safety Car, the chances of a full Safety Car taking to the track at Suzuka are deemed slightly more likely.

Last year’s event featured an early Safety Car period following contact between cars at both the front and rear of the pack.

  • Yes 1.32
  • No 3.20
MELBOURNE, AUSTRALIA - MARCH 24: The car of George Russell of Great Britain and Mercedes is seen on

Russell's crash near the end of the Australian Grand Prix triggered a Virtual Safety Car

The odds for number of classified drivers

Reliability has been strong so far in 2024, but there were two high-profile mechanical failures last time out in Australia, with both Verstappen and Hamilton retiring due to this. Russell, meanwhile, was a late DNF after crashing on the penultimate lap while running behind Fernando Alonso.

The 2023 Japanese Grand Prix saw five drivers retire from the event.

  • Over 16.5 1.32
  • Under 16.5 3.20
  • Over 17.5 1.85
  • Under 17.5 1.85

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The odds for a winning margin

Verstappen’s gap at the front of the pack was cut between his victories in Bahrain and Saudi Arabia, while the margin was much less for winner Sainz in Australia, who took the chequered flag just two seconds ahead of team mate Leclerc as they enjoyed a photo finish for Ferrari.

Could the margins be tight again at Suzuka?

  • Over 10 seconds 1.50
  • Under 5 seconds 4.75
  • Between 5 and 10 seconds inclusive 4.00


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Coming Up


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