BETTING GUIDE: Who are the favourites as F1 heads to Monaco?

Betting Guide Monaco.jpg

The F1 circus heads to Monaco this weekend for the eighth Grand Prix of the season. But who will shine around the streets of Monte Carlo? Will Max Verstappen add to his impressive tally of victories, or will we get a surprise winner in the Principality? Here are what the odds have to say…

188BET’s odds are presented in decimal form: for every $1 wagered you would win the figure represented by the odds; so, if Verstappen is favourite at 1.50, you would win $1.50 for every dollar bet.

The odds for the win

Verstappen is favourite to win in Monaco, a venue where he has tasted victory twice before. He might have won last time out in Imola, but it was a close run thing, with Lando Norris looking exceptionally fast. As such, it is no surprise to see Norris second-favourite here, along with Charles Leclerc.

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Leclerc has never won at his home Grand Prix, nor made the podium. Fourth remains his best result on home soil, but this year he has a competitive Ferrari to paly with, those latest upgrades bolted on in Imola looking like they are doing the business for the Scuderia.

Max Verstappen 1.65
Charles Leclerc, Lando Norris 6.00
Oscar Piastri 12.0
Carlos Sainz, Sergio Perez 17.0
Fernando Alonso, George Russell, Lewis Hamilton 81.0
Lance Stroll 201
Daniel Ricciardo, Esteban Ocon, Pierre Gasly 301
Alex Albon, Kevin Magnussen, Logan Sargeant, Nico Hulkenberg, Valtteri Bottas, Yuki Tsunoda, Zhou Guanyu 601

IMOLA, ITALY - MAY 19: Max Verstappen of the Netherlands driving the (1) Oracle Red Bull Racing

Verstappen narrowly beat Norris last time out in Imola

The odds for who will be fastest in qualifying

Everyone knows how important qualifying is in Monaco, with Saturday’s result often instrumental in deciding the outcome of Sunday’s race. That being said, surprisingly only three of the last eight pole-sitters here have actually gone on to win the race – albeit that includes the year Leclerc was on pole, but couldn’t start and thus Verstappen won from the de facto P1 grid slot.

Nonetheless, everyone will want a strong qualifying performance here. So far this season, Verstappen has taken every Grand Prix pole on offer, but he was beaten to P1 in Sprint Qualifying in China by Norris. That McLaren is looking as good over one lap as it is in race trim, so it will be interesting to see if Norris and Oscar Piastri can take the fight to Red Bull on Saturday.

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Max Verstappen 2.40
Charles Leclerc, Lando Norris 4.00
Sergio Perez 10.0
Oscar Piastri 12.0
Carlos Sainz 15.0
Fernando Alonso 51.0
George Russell, Lewis Hamilton 67.0
Lance Stroll 101
Daniel Ricciardo, Esteban Ocon, Pierre Gasly, Yuki Tsunoda 251
Nico Hulkenberg 301
Alex Albon, Kevin Magnussen, Logan Sargeant, Valtteri Bottas, Zhou Guanyu 601

The odds for a podium finish

Last year in the Principality, Esteban Ocon sprung a surprise in the Alpine and grabbed a well-deserved podium along with Fernando Alonso. But unless weather comes into play, the Red Bulls, Ferraris and McLarens look the most likely to slug it out for the rostrum spots.

IMOLA, ITALY - MAY 19: Lando Norris of Great Britain driving the (4) McLaren MCL38 Mercedes on

The upgraded McLaren looks very quick at the moment - but will it still be so on a track like Monaco?

Carlos Sainz has been overshadowed by his team mate at the last couple of races so might be fired up to remind everyone of his talents, while Piastri has yet to finish in the top three this season and is thus lagging behind his team mate’s four podium appearances. As for Sergio Perez, he won here two years ago and tends to go well at street tracks – could he get in the mix come Sunday?

Max Verstappen 1.20
Charles Leclerc, Lando Norris 1.60
Oscar Piastri, Sergio Perez 2.40
Carlos Sainz 2.75
Fernando Alonso 17.0
George Russell, Lewis Hamilton 19.0
Lance Stroll 67.0
Daniel Ricciardo, Esteban Ocon, Pierre Gasly, Yuki Tsunoda 201
Alex Albon, Kevin Magnussen, Logan Sargeant, Nico Hulkenberg, Valtteri Bottas, Zhou Guanyu 301

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The odds for a top 6 finish

Mercedes have yet to make it to the podium this year, with George Russell’s fifth from the opening race of the season their best Grand Prix finish so far this year. But Lewis Hamilton did finish second in the Sprint in China, so they know they are capable of a good result. Can they get in the mix at the front of the field?

Aston Martin are also trying to stage a recovery after a lacklustre couple of races, especially with Fernando Alonso who failed to score in Imola. That’s the first time this season he hasn’t brought points home from a Grand Prix, so he will be looking to make that right this weekend.

Max Verstappen 1.18
Charles Leclerc, Lando Norris 1.15
Oscar Piastri, Sergio Perez 1.25
Carlos Sainz 1.30
Fernando Alonso, George Russell 2.25
Lewis Hamilton 2.30
Lance Stroll 8.00
Daniel Ricciardo, Esteban Ocon, Pierre Gasly, Yuki Tsunoda 11.0
Nico Hulkenberg 15.0
Kevin Magnussen 21.0
Alex Albon, Valtteri Bottas, Zhou Guanyu 34.0
Logan Sargeant 51.0

IMOLA, ITALY - MAY 19: Third placed Charles Leclerc of Monaco and Ferrari celebrates in parc ferme

Leclerc still hasn't managed to finish on the podium at his home race

The odds for a points finish

RB have been the midfield team most regularly in the points this year courtesy of Yuki Tsunoda, who is on a fine run of form. Nico Hulkenberg has also picked up some points now at three races and in one Sprint, so cannot be discounted in Monaco.

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So much could depend on both the weather, reliability and a touch of luck though, with slower cars able to keep faster ones at bay here. As such, Williams and Kick Sauber might fancy their chances of picking up a first point of the season this weekend.

Max Verstappen 1.05
Charles Leclerc, Lando Norris 1.10
Carlos Sainz, Oscar Piastri, Sergio Perez 1.15
George Russell, Lewis Hamilton 1.20
Fernando Alonso 1.25
Lance Stroll 1.60
Yuki Tsunoda 2.10
Daniel Ricciardo 2.30
Esteban Ocon 2.35
Pierre Gasly 2.40
Nico Hulkenberg 3.00
Kevin Magnussen 5.00
Alex Albon, Valtteri Bottas, Zhou Guanyu 8.00
Logan Sargeant 15.0

The odds for fastest lap

Bagging the bonus point for the fastest lap around Monaco is no mean feat, with the walls looming large. A pit stop here is costly too with track position king, so not many drivers will be tempted by a late dive into the pits for some fresh soft tyres.

Fernando Alonso of Aston Martin Aramco at drivers parade before the Formula 1 Emilia-Romagna Grand

Alonso will be looking to bounce back from a difficult weekend in Imola

As such, whoever grabs the bonus point will have really earned it – and for the midfield teams, if they could get into the points and supplement their score, it could be crucial come the end of the season.

Max Verstappen 2.25
Charles Leclerc, Lando Norris 6.00
Sergio Perez 8.00
Carlos Sainz 12.0
Oscar Piastri 13.0
Fernando Alonso, George Russell, Lewis Hamilton 21.0
Lance Stroll 67.0
Daniel Ricciardo, Esteban Ocon, Pierre Gasly, Yuki Tsunoda 101
Alex Albon, Kevin Magnussen, Logan Sargeant, Nico Hulkenberg, Valtteri Bottas, Zhou Guanyu 151

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What are the odds for which team will take the most points?

Unsurprisingly, Red Bull are top in the odds here, with Perez normally providing able back-up to his team mate at street tracks. That is assuming he doesn’t beat Verstappen here as he did two years ago. McLaren just edge Ferrari as second favourites, with little to choose between their very talented line-ups.

Red Bull 1.50
McLaren 4.00
Ferrari 5.00
Aston Martin, Mercedes 34.0
RB 126
Alpine 151
Haas, Williams 251
Kick Sauber 301

The odds for a Safety Car appearing during the race

There was no Safety Car last weekend in Imola, but those barriers at Monaco are unforgiving. The odds favour an appearance by the Safety Car on Sunday, although even in some chaotic conditions thanks to a late-rain shower, the Safety Car wasn’t needed here last year.

Yes 1.15
No 4.75

MONTE-CARLO, MONACO - MAY 28: Race winner Max Verstappen of the Netherlands and Oracle Red Bull

Ocon grabbed an unexpected podium last year in Monaco

The odds for a number of classified drivers

There have been some famous races in Monaco with very few drivers making it to the flag – 1996 sticks out as one such occasion – but last year, 18 cars made it to the end of the Grand Prix. Reliability has been fairly consistent this year, with one race retiree at each of the last two events.

Over 16.5 1.50
Under 16.5 2.50
Over 17.5 2.25
Under 17.5 1.57

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The odds for a winning margin

Verstappen squeaked over the line in Imola last weekend by less than a second, and the winning margins have been getting narrower and narrower this year. But how much pressure will the race leader be under in the closing laps on Sunday?

Over 10 seconds 2.75
Between 5 and 10 seconds inclusive 2.75
Under 5 seconds 2.65


Coming Up

Coming Up


‘Passenger’ Albon left frustrated by Sainz crash on day points were possible, as Sargeant rues ‘too many mistakes’