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BETTING GUIDE: Who are the favourites as F1 returns to Europe for the Spanish Grand Prix?

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The world of F1 has returned to Europe for the first part of a triple-header of races, with Spain the next destination for the drivers. They all know the Circuit de Barcelona-Catalunya well, having raced and tested here many times – but who will excel around this high-speed track in 2024?

The field has been getting closer all season, so let’s see what the odds have to say…

188BET’s odds are presented in decimal form: for every $1 wagered you would win the figure represented by the odds; so, if Verstappen is favourite at 1.50, you would win $1.50 for every dollar bet.

The odds for the win

Fresh from his Canada triumph, it is no surprise to see Max Verstappen as favourite once again for the win. The Red Bull is widely expected to go well here, and the Dutchman has won this race for the past two seasons – not to mention this is the venue of his first ever F1 triumph.

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The odds have the McLaren of Lando Norris as second-favourite though, ahead of the Ferrari of Charles Leclerc. There has been little to choose between the two of late – both have taken a win this year and the pecking order between the McLaren and Ferraris does seem to be track specific. Quite who the Barcelona circuit will suit remains to be seen.

Max Verstappen 1.50
Lando Norris 6.00
Charles Leclerc 9.00
Sergio Perez 17.0
Carlos Sainz, George Russell, Lewis Hamilton, Oscar Piastri 26.0
Fernando Alonso 151
Alex Albon, Daniel Ricciardo, Esteban Ocon, Kevin Magnussen, Lance Stroll, Logan Sargeant, Nico Hulkenberg, Pierre Gasly, Valtteri Bottas, Yuki Tsunoda, Zhou Guanyu 301

MONTREAL, QUEBEC - JUNE 09: Race winner Max Verstappen of the Netherlands and Oracle Red Bull

Verstappen won the most recent race in Canada for Red Bull

The odds for who will be fastest in qualifying

George Russell took a sensational pole position last time out in Montreal, but the bookmakers have Verstappen as favourite once again. The Dutchman’s form over one lap has been impressive this season, but he could well find himself challenged on Saturday in qualifying.

Norris has been strong over one lap, and so has his team mate Oscar Piastri. The Australian knows what it feels like to be the fastest against the clock when it matters, but has a best qualifying this year of second. Can he go one better this weekend?

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Max Verstappen 1.65
Lando Norris 6.00
Charles Leclerc 10.00
Oscar Piastri 13.0
Carlos Sainz, George Russell, Lewis Hamilton, Sergio Perez 17.0
Fernando Alonso 67.0
Lance Stroll 101
Alex Albon, Daniel Ricciardo, Yuki Tsunoda 151
Esteban Ocon, Kevin Magnussen, Logan Sargeant, Nico Hulkenberg, Pierre Gasly, Valtteri Bottas, Zhou Guanyu 301

The odds for a podium finish

Russell grabbed the first Mercedes podium of the year in Canada, and this is a track that the Silver Arrows once dominated. They could well be in with a shout of a rostrum again on Sunday, but a few others might fancy their chances.

MONTREAL, QUEBEC - JUNE 09: George Russell of Great Britain driving the (63) Mercedes AMG Petronas

Russell grabbed his first pole of the season last time out

Carlos Sainz and Fernando Alonso would both love to be on the podium in front of their home fans, with Alonso saying he believes his fellow countryman will finish in the top three this weekend when asked in the press conference. But with the top four teams all in with a shout, those podium places will be hotly contested.

Max Verstappen 1.15
Lando Norris 1.50
Charles Leclerc 1.60
Carlos Sainz 3.25
Sergio Perez 3.50
Oscar Piastri 4.35
George Russell, Lewis Hamilton 4.50
Fernando Alonso 26.0
Lance Stroll 67.0
Alex Albon, Daniel Ricciardo, Yuki Tsunoda 101
Esteban Ocon, Kevin Magnussen, Nico Hulkenberg, Pierre Gasly 151
Logan Sargeant, Valtteri Bottas, Zhou Guanyu 251

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The odds for a top-six finish

RB have been muscling their way to the top of the midfield of late, with Yuki Tsunoda very much their star performer. But Daniel Ricciardo showed the sort of form that earned him a comeback drive in Montreal, and will be keen to keep that momentum.

They look the most likely from the midfield to get in the mix, but much will depend on the form of Aston Martin. After a tricky couple of races, the green cars shot back up the order last time out – but that was in wet conditions. If it rains as predicted on Sunday for the race, that could well suit Aston Martin as they seek to distance themselves from the chasing pack.

Max Verstappen 1.10
Charles Leclerc, Lando Norris 1.15
Carlos Sainz, Sergio Perez 1.28
Oscar Piastri 1.30
George Russell 1.55
Lewis Hamilton 1.70
Fernando Alonso 3.25
Lance Stroll 9.00
Daniel Ricciardo, Yuki Tsunoda 13.0
Alex Albon, Kevin Magnussen, Nico Hulkenberg 21.0
Esteban Ocon, Pierre Gasly 34.0
Logan Sargeant, Valtteri Bottas, Zhou Guanyu 51.0

BARCELONA, SPAIN - JUNE 20: Carlos Sainz of Spain and Ferrari signs autographs for fans during

Sainz is looking for a strong result on home soil

The odds for a points finish

Kick Sauber are the only team yet to score this season, but they might need a calamitous race to do so, with this track not especially expected to suit their car. That brings Haas and Williams into contention for points paying positions though, with both those teams showing a marked improvement since the start of the season.

Another driver who will be keen to score after recording a DNF in the past two races is Sergio Perez. But the Mexican does have to contend with a three-place grid drop, earned last time out for driving a car in an unsafe condition.

Max Verstappen 1.07
Lando Norris 1.08
Charles Leclerc 1.10
Carlos Sainz 1.12
George Russell, Lewis Hamilton, Oscar Piastri, Sergio Perez 1.15
Fernando Alonso 1.30
Lance Stroll 1.70
Yuki Tsunoda 1.82
Daniel Ricciardo 2.20
Nico Hulkenberg 2.75
Kevin Magnussen 4.00
Alex Albon 4.35
Esteban Ocon, Pierre Gasly 5.50
Logan Sargeant, Valtteri Bottas 10.0
Zhou Guanyu 11.0

READ MORE: Stroll gives update on his future as he assesses Aston Martin’s prospects for Spanish Grand Prix

The odds for fastest lap

Pirelli have given the teams the hardest three compounds for this weekend in Spain, so who might fancy keeping back a set of the soft C3 tyre for a late bid at fastest lap? The margins are quite tight in the constructors’, with Haas, Williams and Alpine all desperate for points.

BARCELONA, SPAIN - JUNE 20: Lando Norris of Great Britain and McLaren talks to the media during

McLaren boast two in-form drivers and expect the track here to suit their car

But would they risk it if they had a car in the top 10 late on? If not, it might be left to whoever has fresh air up front to have a go at the bonus point on offer.

Max Verstappen 2.35
George Russell, Lewis Hamilton 7.00
Lando Norris, Sergio Perez 9.00
Charles Leclerc 10.0
Carlos Sainz, Oscar Piastri 13.0
Fernando Alonso 26.0
Daniel Ricciardo, Lance Stroll, Yuki Tsunoda 101
Alex Albon, Esteban Ocon, Kevin Magnussen, Logan Sargeant, Nico Hulkenberg, Pierre Gasly, Valtteri Bottas, Zhou Guanyu 201

What are the odds for which team will take the most points?

McLaren have snuck ahead of Ferrari into second place behind Red Bull, with Piastri and Norris forming a formidable duo at the moment. But Leclerc and Sainz are both in form too, so if Perez can’t back up Verstappen, there is plenty to play for.

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As for Mercedes, Hamilton didn’t quite manage to match his team mate in Montreal qualifying – but he’ll be keen to remind everyone of his talents at a track where he has won six times before.

Red Bull 1.40
McLaren 4.50
Ferrari 6.50
Mercedes 13.0
Aston Martin 67.0
Alpine, Haas, RB, Sauber, Williams 301

The odds for a Safety Car appearing during the race

If the rain arrives on Sunday, the chances of a Safety Car appearing will increase. It proved influential in Canada and in Miami before that, so the leaders will be wary of an appearance by the Safety Car this time around.

Yes 1.85
No 1.85

BARCELONA, SPAIN - JUNE 20: Fernando Alonso of Spain and Aston Martin F1 Team attends the press

Alonso is another looking for a good result in front of his adoring fans

The odds for a number of classified drivers

Five drivers failed to finish in Canada, but that was a track with looming walls. Barcelona has more generous run off areas and gravel traps to boot, so it will be interesting to see how many cars make it to the flag. There haven’t been too many reliability concerns just yet – with most drivers still within allocation of their PU components too.

But if any of the upgrades don’t go to plan, someone could find themselves limping back to the pits for an early shower on Sunday.

Over 16.5 1.15
Under 16.5 6.00
Over 17.5 1.50
Under 17.5 2.50

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The odds for a winning margin

Every driver keeps talking about how tight the margins are this year, and there is no reason to believe this weekend will be any different. But will it be a Red Bull, a McLaren or a Ferrari taking the win – or will another team sneak a victory? And by how much? That’s the question, with some closely fought victories already in 2024.

Over 10 seconds 2.00
Between 5 and 10 seconds inclusive 3.00
Under 5 seconds 3.50

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