Betting odds for the Italian Grand Prix – Who is tipped to take the spoils at Monza?

ZANDVOORT, NETHERLANDS - SEPTEMBER 04: The race winner's trophy and the constructors race win

Max Verstappen and Red Bull head into the final part of Formula 1’s latest triple-header sequence with commanding championship leads, having won the last four Grands Prix. But what are the odds of them triumphing again at the Autodromo Nazionale Monza?

188BET’s odds are presented in decimal form: for every $1 wagered you would win the figure represented by the odds; so, if Verstappen is favourite at 1.50, you would win $1.50 for every dollar bet.

The odds for the win

Verstappen arrives at Monza looking to make it five wins in a row, having taken the chequered flag in France, Hungary, Belgium and, most recently, on home soil in the Netherlands.

If he wins again this weekend, it would be the Red Bull driver’s 11th victory from 16 races in 2022, with his advantage over Ferrari rival Charles Leclerc and team mate Sergio Perez now sitting at a whopping 109 points.

READ MORE: What time is the 2022 Italian Grand Prix and where can I watch it?

As such, the reigning world champion is the clear favourite to stand on the top step of the podium in Italy – even if Red Bull’s last victory at Monza came way back in 2013, with the Dutchman also yet to win here.

Leclerc is next on the list as he looks to deliver a strong result for Ferrari in front of the tifosi, followed by George Russell and Lewis Hamilton – the Mercedes pair still without a triumph this season.

However, we did see surprise race winners in 2020 and 2021 with AlphaTauri’s Pierre Gasly and McLaren’s Daniel Ricciardo respectively – meaning nothing can be ruled out.

  • Max Verstappen 1.35
  • Charles Leclerc 7.00
  • George Russell, Lewis Hamilton 11.0
  • Sergio Perez 13.0
  • Carlos Sainz 26.0
  • Fernando Alonso 151
  • Lando Norris 301
  • Esteban Ocon 601
  • Alex Albon, Daniel Ricciardo, Kevin Magnussen, Lance Stroll, Mick Schumacher, Nicholas Latifi, Pierre Gasly, Sebastian Vettel, Valtteri Bottas, Yuki Tsunoda, Zhou Guanyu 901
ZANDVOORT, NETHERLANDS - SEPTEMBER 04: Race winner Max Verstappen of the Netherlands and Oracle Red

Verstappen could make it five wins in a row at Monza this weekend

The odds for who will be fastest in qualifying

Compared to their significant haul of race wins, Verstappen and Red Bull have not been quite so prolific in qualifying this season, with Ferrari often showing superior one-lap pace and Mercedes also getting in on the act at recent events.

Nonetheless, Verstappen still has the shortest odds to claim what would be his fifth pole position of the campaign and back-to-back P1 grid spots. He’s followed – with a much smaller odds gap compared to their victory prospects – by Leclerc, who is eyeing his eighth pole in 2022.

READ MORE: Max-mania reached new heights at Zandvoort – but what’s happened to Perez?

Carlos Sainz, Perez and Russell – this year’s other pole-sitters – are all seen as outsiders to add to their tallies.

  • Max Verstappen 1.50
  • Charles Leclerc 3.00
  • Carlos Sainz, Sergio Perez 17.0
  • George Russell, Lewis Hamilton 19.0
  • Fernando Alonso, Lando Norris 151
  • Esteban Ocon 301
  • Daniel Ricciardo, 601
  • Alex Albon, Kevin Magnussen, Lance Stroll, Mick Schumacher, Nicholas Latifi, Pierre Gasly, Sebastian Vettel, Valtteri Bottas, Yuki Tsunoda, Zhou Guanyu 901
ZANDVOORT, NETHERLANDS - SEPTEMBER 03: Pole position qualifier Max Verstappen of the Netherlands

Verstappen acknowledges the Dutch fans after claiming pole position on home soil

The odds for a podium finish

Unsurprisingly, Verstappen’s podium chances are viewed as all but nailed on. Only three times has he finished off the rostrum this season; the first and second when he retired from the Bahrain opener and Australian Grand Prix amid technical trouble, and the third when debris damaged his car in Great Britain and he limped home in seventh.

Leclerc, Hamilton and Perez all have at least half a dozen podium finishes apiece so far this season and, as a result, have short odds to bag another this time out. The odds are slightly longer for Russell and Sainz, despite the pair boasting a similar number of top-three results.

READ MORE: 6 Winners and 5 Losers from the Dutch Grand Prix – Who impressed at Zandvoort?

Alpine’s Fernando Alonso is seen as the most likely midfield runner to spring a surprise – albeit with much longer odds compared to the top six.

  • Max Verstappen 1.30
  • Charles Leclerc 1.60
  • Lewis Hamilton 1.70
  • Sergio Perez 1.80
  • George Russell 2.40
  • Carlos Sainz 3.00
  • Fernando Alonso 17.0
  • Esteban Ocon, Lando Norris 26.0
  • Daniel Ricciardo 67.0
  • Alex Albon, Kevin Magnussen, Lance Stroll, Sebastian Vettel 126
  • Mick Schumacher, Pierre Gasly, Valtteri Bottas, 151
  • Nicholas Latifi, Yuki Tsunoda, Zhou Guanyu 301
ZANDVOORT, NETHERLANDS - SEPTEMBER 04: Third placed Charles Leclerc of Monaco and Ferrari talks

Verstappen, Leclerc and Russell debrief after their podium finishes at Zandvoort

The odds for fastest lap

Another category, another ‘favourite’ tag for Verstappen, who could make it three fastest laps from the three legs of the Belgium-Netherlands-Italy triple-header.

Verstappen has the most fastest laps of any driver so far this season, holding five to nearest challenger Leclerc’s three, and the odds are with the pair to claim the bonus point on offer this weekend.

READ MORE: ‘We probably have to try quite hard to lose it’ says Horner as Red Bull eye both titles for first time since 2013

Sainz, Perez and Hamilton are next up, having all set a fastest lap over the 15 races held in 2022 to date – McLaren driver Lando Norris the other to do so.

  • Max Verstappen 1.65
  • Charles Leclerc 3.50
  • Carlos Sainz, Sergio Perez 9.00
  • Lewis Hamilton 15.0
  • George Russell 17.0
  • Fernando Alonso, Lando Norris 151
  • Alex Albon, Daniel Ricciardo, Esteban Ocon, Kevin Magnussen, Lance Stroll, Mick Schumacher, Nicholas Latifi, Pierre Gasly, Sebastian Vettel, Valtteri Bottas, Yuki Tsunoda, Zhou Guanyu 251
ZANDVOORT, NETHERLANDS - SEPTEMBER 04: Max Verstappen of the Netherlands driving the (1) Oracle Red

Verstappen leads the pack at the start of the Dutch Grand Prix

What are the odds for which team will take the most points?

In addition to Verstappen’s significant lead in the drivers’ championship, Red Bull are sitting pretty at the top of the constructors’ standings. With seven races to go, the Milton Keynes-based team are 135 points clear of Ferrari, who now have Mercedes breathing down their necks for second place.

While Red Bull are easily expected to rack up the most points this weekend, Mercedes are viewed as the next best bet. Indeed, their consistency – mixed with Ferrari’s troubles – mean the Silver Arrows sit just 30 points away from the Scuderia in the battle for the ‘best of the rest’ spot.

READ MORE: 'Aggressive early stop' key to Alonso's rise from P13 on the grid to sixth as Alpine extend advantage over McLaren

Further back, there is a similarly exciting scrap taking place between Alpine and McLaren over P4. Alpine have edged clear at recent events and the trend is expected to continue at the high-speed Monza circuit.

  • Red Bull 1.25
  • Mercedes 5.50
  • Ferrari 7.00
  • Alpine 101
  • McLaren 201
  • Aston Martin 601
  • Alfa Romeo, Alpha Tauri, Haas, Williams 901
BUDAPEST, HUNGARY - JULY 31: Fernando Alonso of Spain driving the (14) Alpine F1 A522 Renault,

Alpine and McLaren are locked in a close battle for P4 in the constructors' standings

The odds for a Safety Car appearing during the race

The Safety Car made appearances at the Belgian and Dutch Grands Prix – and the odds suggest that driver Bernd Maylander will be called into action again in Italy.

Three of the last four Italian Grands Prix have been impacted by a Safety Car period, with the 2021 race neutralised at the halfway mark following a dramatic collision between title rivals Verstappen and Hamilton.

READ MORE: What time is the 2022 Italian Grand Prix and where can I watch it?

  • Yes 1.50
  • No 2.50


Coming Up

Coming Up


Hamilton not expecting to out-qualify Russell for rest of 2024 as he explains ‘frustrating’ Saturday struggles in Monaco