BETTING GUIDE: Who are the favourites for the win in the Land of the Rising Sun?
Japan plays host to the 16th race weekend of the season, and it could be a special one for Red Bull who can wrap up the constructors’ title here. They will be looking to bounce back from that shock loss of form last time out in Singapore, while Ferrari are trying to carry the momentum from a first win of the season into this weekend.
But who out of those two do the odds favour – or do the bookmakers believe McLaren or Mercedes are the team to beat here?
188BET’s odds are presented in decimal form: for every $1 wagered you would win the figure represented by the odds; so, if Verstappen is favourite at 1.50, you would win $1.50 for every dollar bet.
The odds for the win
Unsurprisingly, for a man who has won 12 out of the 15 races this season, the odds still favour Max Verstappen for the race win. He took the victory here last year in reasonably emphatic fashion, and even put a poor qualifying display behind him in Singapore to climb back to fifth at the flag.
Sergio Perez has been putting in much stronger performances of late – if you discount Singapore, as the whole team might wish to do – and is second favourite, while it looks like McLaren’s Lando Norris has crept ahead in the fight with Ferrari and Mercedes. He is still chasing a maiden F1 win, but expects this track to suit his car.
• Max Verstappen 1.28
• Sergio Perez 12.0
• Lando Norris 15.0
• Carlos Sainz, Charles Leclerc, George Russell, Lewis Hamilton 21.0
• Oscar Piastri 29.0
• Fernando Alonso 51.0
• Esteban Ocon, Lance Stroll, Pierre Gasly 251
• Alex Albon, Kevin Magnussen, Liam Lawson, Logan Sargeant, Nico Hulkenberg, Valtteri Bottas, Yuki Tsunoda, Zhou Guanyu 601
The odds for who will be fastest in qualifying
Verstappen took pole here last season by just 0.010s from Leclerc, and the Dutchman is the favourite for another P1 on Saturday. But again it is Norris who looks most likely to challenge the might of the Red Bull. Norris has started on pole before, back in Sochi in 2021 and knows what it takes to deliver over one lap.
After McLaren, Ferrari are tipped to be quick, quicker than Mercedes. That has been borne out so far this season, with the Silver Arrows often having the edge on race pace thanks to their better tyre management while the Scuderia tend to go better over one lap.
• Max Verstappen 1.45
• Lando Norris 10.0
• Carlos Sainz, Charles Leclerc 12.0
• Sergio Perez 13.0
• George Russell, Lewis Hamilton, Oscar Piastri 19.0
• Fernando Alonso 41.0
• Alex Albon 81.0
• Lance Stroll 201
• Esteban Ocon, Pierre Gasly 301
• Kevin Magnussen, Liam Lawson, Logan Sargeant, Nico Hulkenberg, Valtteri Bottas, Yuki Tsunoda, Zhou Guanyu 601
The odds for a podium finish
As well as the big guns, Alpine have managed to get both their drivers on the podium this season. But Oscar Piastri is yet to finish in the top three in a Grand Prix proper – having only managed the feat in a Sprint back in Belgium. With McLaren expected to go well this weekend, and the Aussie driver getting his hands on the team’s latest upgrades, could this weekend see him finally step out onto the rostrum?
He’s somewhat down the order, as is Fernando Alonso with Aston Martin continuing to slide backwards in Singapore. Damage was blamed for Alonso’s lack of pace last time out, but it remains to be seen if he can climb his way back up the order.
• Max Verstappen 1.10
• Sergio Perez 1.60
• Lando Norris 2.35
• Lewis Hamilton 2.75
• George Russell 3.50
• Carlos Sainz, Charles Leclerc 3.75
• Oscar Piastri 4.50
• Fernando Alonso 7.00
• Esteban Ocon, Lance Stroll, Pierre Gasly 67.0
• Alex Albon 101
• Liam Lawson, Yuki Tsunoda 151
• Logan Sargeant, Valtteri Bottas 201
• Kevin Magnussen, Nico Hulkenberg, Zhou Guanyu 251
The odds for fastest lap
Suzuka is a fast enough track as it is, before you add a bonus point into the mix. Much could depend on the tyres, with Pirelli opting for the hardest three compounds for this weekend. Will anyone find themselves on softs late on, when their fuel load is low and the track rubbered in?
It could all come down to strategy on the day, but a bonus point would be very handy for a few teams, with the margins in the constructors’ especially tight.
• Max Verstappen 1.65
• Sergio Perez 6.00
• Lewis Hamilton 11.00
• Lando Norris 12.0
• George Russell 13.0
• Carlos Sainz, Charles Leclerc, Fernando Alonso, Oscar Piastri 17.0
• Lance Stroll 151
• Alex Albon, Esteban Ocon, Pierre Gasly 201
• Kevin Magnussen, Liam Lawson, Logan Sargeant, Nico Hulkenberg, Valtteri Bottas, Yuki Tsunoda, Zhou Guanyu 301
What are the odds for which team will take the most points?
Once again, it is Red Bull as the favourites even though they were out shone in Singapore by both Ferrari and Mercedes. The Silver Arrows really aren’t fancied here with respect to the Scuderia and McLaren, and the papaya team could be one to watch. Piastri didn’t have the latest upgraded package last weekend as the team only produced one and bolted it to Norris’ car.
But he has got it now and might be a handful as a result – although much will depend on how quickly he gets up to speed at a track he has never raced at before.
• Red Bull 1.20
• Ferrari, McLaren 9.00
• Mercedes 11.0
• Aston Martin 41.0
• Alpine 101
• Williams 126
• Alfa Romeo, AlphaTauri, Haas 201
The odds for a Safety Car appearing during the race
The Safety Car made an appearance last weekend as it often does in Singapore, but what about Japan? The threat of rain on Sunday appears to have diminished, but crashes are often commonplace here thanks to the grass that lies just off the racing line.
• Yes 1.60
• No 2.20